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The Mets lost 90 games last year. The core power group that brought the team to withing a game of the World Series in 2006 is fraying and broken: Carlos Delgado is long gone. Carlos Beltran, the infamous third-strike viewer with the huge talent, is hurt and diminished. Jose Reyes is coming back after a lost season, and David Wright is looking for his power stroke. Yet this was the group that was supposed to help the franchise to a period of National League dominance. Johan Santana was – in theory – the last swipe of the brush on a masterpiece.
Instead, he’s the lone quality starter atop a rotation that’d fit in well in San Diego or Pittsburgh. and Omar Minaya’s grand strategy lies in tatters, it’s been shattered, splattered all over New York.
Like the Yankees, the Mets are favored to repeat: as the worst team money can buy.
Yes, I do think they’ll be better, especially if Beltran can make a comeback – though I agree with Keith Olbermann that the silence around the centerfielder is ominous; he takes a long time to heal. But Jason Bay (a good signing), Beltran and Jeff Francoeur could be the NL’s top outfield. With Reyes back – and I do think he’s going to return to form – the left side of the infield is once again a real strength. But the right side’s unsettled: Luis Castillo, who hit .300 but spent the winter with the knowledge the Mets were trying to dump him, returns at second. Daniel Murphy, who tweaked his knee and starts the year on the DL, is back at first – though journeyman Mike Jacobs fills in for now. The catching is new but old: ancient dudes Rod Barrajas and Henry Blanco will split time.
So your everyday lineup come, oh, June 1 may look like this: Reyes, Castillo, Wright, Beltran, Bay, Francoeur, Murphy, Barrajas/Blanco. Solid. Not bad at all.
But the Mets starters return the team to the glory years – of 1979 or so. Simply put, it’s a crime that a franchise can spend as much as the Mets and flat out neglect the most important part of the team, especially in pitching friendly Citi Field. Oliver Perez is a mildly talented head case. Mike Pelfrey is a mildly talented head case. John Maine is a fragile, occasionally strong-willed cipher. Jonothan Niese is a young, unproven talent. No self-respecting contender with a nine-figure payroll can field a rotation as lame as this one. It’s just an embarrassment.
Yeah, the pen’s pretty good – especially if 20-year-old Jenrry Mejia comes north (we’ll find out tomorrow). But the pen will be a raggedy, broken group with sore arms and low hearts mopping up for this starting staff.
The bright spot is the resurgent Mets farm system, which features several players coming on strong all at once: Fernando Martinez looks finally like he will pan out. Ike Davis is a major league first-baseman with power. Ruben Tejada has some baseball instincts you can’t teach – just as Mejia has movement on the fastball you can’t teach. Catcher Josh Thole can flat out hit. But this group of talented young Mets won’t impact this team in 2010 to any appreciable extent.
Indeed, it’s my view that this group will be given the chance to blossom under entirely new management. Given the starting pitching, I cannot imagine Minaya and Jerry Manuel surviving this season.
And so, Mets fans are concentrating on upgrades to the enjoyable atmosphere at Citi Field, which – unlike the rotation – the Wilpons spent the off-season improving upon. There are new tributes outside to guys like Seaver, Gooden, Koosman, Matlack, Ojeda, Darling, Gentry and Fernandez – the starters who delivered Mets glory in the past. And the old Shea homerun apple has been moved to a new spot, out in front of the rotunda below the stairs from the 7 Train. “Meet me by the apple…” is being touted as the imperative of fans traveling to Citi Field. But that invitation neglects the second piece, the kicker:
“…so we can watch the Nats put up a six-spot on Ollie by the third inning.”
Because that’ll be the story of your 2010 New York Mets – battling for third place and the .500 mark, like teams with 20 percent of their payroll.
Jason’s Counterpoint
I wish I could offer an honest to goodness counterpoint, predicting 90 wins and a wild card berth for a resurgent Mets. I love taking a contrary position. But c’mon, there’s no chance of this happening! The Mets are a forgotten also-ran franchise with ownership that seems not to want to compete, management that seems utterly incompetent, and a new stadium with more Brooklyn Dodgers than Mets swag. The franchise is in desperate need of a gut (and guts) rehab.
Mets ownership and management hasn’t quite descended to the nadir of sports team front office horror reached by the Dolan/Isiah Thomas Knicks. But they’re getting there. From the mismanagement of injured players (calling Beltran to ask him not to have knee surgery while he was on the operating table was the nadir) to the unwillingness to compete for the champagne-and-caviar level free agents to Omar Minaya’s embarrassing public relations gaffes (anybody remember the Adam Rubin press conference?), the Mets’ front office is a profound and perhaps insurmountable barrier to success for a team that boasts a decent line up and truely bad pitching. In fact, the Mets starting pitching is so bad that by June the team’s bullpen with also be completely burned out, having been called upon time and again in the 4th or 5th inning to bale out Pelfrey and Perez.
There’s really no scenario I can imagine in which the Mets can compete. It won’t take much to win the NL wild card, probably 90 wins, possibly less. But even if everything breaks right for the Mets, the team can’t win more than 85 or 86 games – which would still probably leave them in third place in the NL East.
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