It was the autumn of 1998 or 1999 and Tom and I were walking from the office where we worked through lower Manhattan to get some lunch, walking through the detritus of another Yankee victory parade – the tangled ribbons of shredded paper piled in random heaps along the streets, sidewalks and curbs; a discarded homemade oaktag sign scribbled with a message like “Tino, Tom’s River Loves You” lying face up on the side walk; street corner garbage cans overflowing with water bottles, soda bottles, beer cans in paper bags, Daily News commemorative wraparounds. As we passed a lingering local entrepreneur – a nervous-eyed street vendor trying to liquidate his remaining stock of unlicensed Yankees World Champion t-shirts – Tom asked me “Aren’t you going to get one?” I smiled, gave a dismissive wave of my hand and said, “Nah, I’ll get one next year.”
I could have – the Yanks won again the following year – but despite the spoiled existence I’ve lived as a Yankees fan (in my lifetime the Yankees have made 12 world series appearances and won 7 championships including repeat wins in 1978 and back-to-back-to-back wins from 1998-2000) I know is a rare and difficult thing to repeat. The Yanks have a chance this year, and I’m going to pick them, but that at least partly because I’m a fan, not an objective baseball analyst.
In truth I think the Yanks do have an opportunity to win 100 games again this year. I think the roster is slightly worse offensively this year than it was last year–Damon and Matsui were not only productive and clutch, but also capable of the great, disciplined, withering at-bats against both righties and lefties; Granderson and Johnson aren’t the same kind of hitters. But with A-rod presumably on hand for a full 162, with greater outfield depth allowing Girardi to rotate hot hitters in the corner spots, the Yanks ought to barely notice the slightly diminished offense.
The starting pitching is significantly improved. After a completely unproductive year and a half from Wang and a succession of journeymen forced to fill in for him, Javy Vazquez is an enormous upgrade. In fact, Vazquez is a guy who would have been an upgrade over a healthy Wang (Vazquez has a lower WHIP, many more strike outs, and has pitched 200+ innings 9 times; yeah, his career numbers are better in the NL than the AL, but that’s true of pretty much every pitcher in the DH era). With the emergence of Robertson, the re-emergence of Marte, the addition of Park (who seems to have found his niche in short, middle inning relief), and the moving of Joba into the pen, the Yankee bullpen looks to be the strongest it’s been in years (though I’d like to see at least one more shut-down lefty in there).
The there are only two barriers to the Yankees winning 100 games and another AL pennant – age and the Boston Red Sox. There’s already been plenty of ink spilled about the potential ravages of age on the Yankees core. Everyone from Nate Silver to ESPN is predicting enormous drop offs for Mariano Rivera and other Yankee players. While it’s unlikely that all of the Yankees’ aging superstars will hit the wall at once (and, in their mid 30s A-rod and Jeter aren’t ancient by modern sports standards), it’s possible that some of them will. My biggest concerns are for Rivera – because he is the oldest of the core guys, and the most important of them (when Rivera’s great the Yanks win the world series, when Rivera falters as he did in 1997 & 2001, they don’t) – and Posada, because he’s the second oldest and plays the most physically demanding position. It’s also possible that Burnett, who is overdue for one of his traditional long DL stints, could spend a lot of time on the DL this year together with Nick Johnson. But those things are impossible to predict. So, I’m setting aside and traumatic effects of age, and predicting that the Yanks will win 95-100 games even with slight diminished output from their aging core.
But the Red Sox will still stand in the way of another Yankee pennant. The Sox won 95 games last year, added a quality big game starter in John Lackey, added a productive hitter in Adrian Beltre, have Victor Martinez for a full year, and improved their defense up the middle. Yeah, they’ll miss Jason Bay’s power, and, in fact, they’re short on power in general in an era where pitching and power win you world series (witness the Yanks and Phils), but they are at least 3-5 games better than they were last year on the Lackey addition alone, pushing the Sox right up to the 100 win mark. In fact, I’m picking the Sox to win the AL East with triple digit wins with the Yankees winning the wild card winning just below that number. Of course I’ll pick the Yanks to beat the Sox in another classic ALCS, I’m a Yankees fan. But I’ll be nervous about it.
What about the Rays you ask? Well, they are a great young team with a lot of talent. Longoria’s a good pick to win the AL MVP. Zobrist is the real deal too. The pitching staff is full of great arms. The addition of a closer will help. But the team won 84 games last year. will they really be 15 games better than they were last year in a brutally tough division where even the Orioles have improved? I don’t think so. Rays can win 90 games and finish thrid. That’s tough, the could easily have more wins than the teams that win the AL Central and West but not make the playoffs. But that’s the reality of playing in a division with the big boys.
Well, here we go again, Phillies vs. Yankees. Hard to pick against that match up on paper. And, of course I’m picking the Yanks over the Phils again. I’m not a self-hating Yankee fan! In fact, I think I’ll pick up that T-shirt this year…
Tom’s Counterpoint
I can’t find too much to disagree with in Jason’s Yankee preview – except perhaps the final result. I think perhaps that 2010 will be the inverse of 2009 – the Yanks will get off to a fast start, but instead of gelling mid-year, injuries and some bad breaks will go against them this time.
Call it the Curse of the Bambino’s House. Jason’s right about the personnel – the Yanks have deeper pitching and a slightly weaker, and less clutch, lineup. But in terms of karma, the destruction of New York’s temple of baseball across the street – where Gate 2 fell yesterday – will hold up a huge hex over this Yankee season. The fun and hijinx of Swisher and the Burnett walk-off pie-fests seems like a one-year wonder to me.
Or maybe it’ll just be injuries. You can count on Posada missing serious time. And I wouldn’t be shocked to see Jeter his the DL either. Or Pettitte. Or even Mo. But the real key will be the starters – an unlucky injury or two can bring the Yanks back to the pack. And Girardi’s handling of pitching – despite the world championship – can often be a little odd. And then there’s A-Rod’s postponed appointment in Buffalo.
Not much to hang a prediction on – the Yanks once again boast a top three roster in terms of talent – and this Yankee team may be the best wildcard ever. But I just have feeling the luck will swing the other way, and it’ll back to the one and out formula of the mid-2000s for your New York Yankees – unless, the division goes Sox, Rays (surprise!), Yanks….which could happen.
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