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Pen No Setback for Joba

Yanks Clinch
Image by bump via Flickr

With Joba Chamberlain moving back into the bullpen to start the season, and GM Brian Cashman still leaving the door open for Joba to return to the rotation at some point, Yankee fans are showing their pique.

Don’t mess with Joba, they say. You’ve screwed the kid up jerking him between the rotation and the bullpen, they say. Just tell him what his job is and leave him alone.

“Joba — unless Yankees do something crazy like send him Triple-A — is going to be in the bullpen this season. Leave him there. Stop this madness.” writes Aviv at Sox V. Stripes.

Jay at Fack Youk evokes some pseudo science to rationalize sending Joba down where he can work on his starting skills.  “In theory, removing Joba from the bullpen should cost the Yanks about one win this year. Is anyone willing to argue those 8 runs above replacement are worth sidetracking his development as a starter ”

Jordan Schwartz at the Bleacher Report is particularly livid and wildly wrong when he writes: “I didn’t think New York needed to pick up Vazquez. They could’ve put Chamberlain in the No. 4 slot and then re-signed Chien-Ming Wang to replace Hughes at the No. 5 once he was healthy enough around June.” (Vazquez is a better pitcher than Wang ever was and quite probably better than Hughes or Joba will ever be and he was a heist in return for a spare-part like Melky; furthermore who knows if Wang will ever be an effective major league starter ever again.)

Steve Lombardi at Was Watching writes: “Well, pretty soon “Joba Chamberlain” is going to become synonymous with totally mismanaging a pitching prospect outside of abusing his arm.

Bullocks, I say. Moving a kid back and forth between the bullpen and the rotation is an age old, time worn way for a kid to break into the majors, and it didn’t hurt the long-term careers of the likes of David Wells and Nolan Ryan.

Now, I, who was a proponent of giving Joba a shot to start, have become convinced that Chamberlain is never going to be a great starter. His mechanics are bad and inconsistent–sometimes he drives to the plate, sometimes he throws across his body falling off the mound–leading to variations in velocity and trouble hitting spots. As a starter he pitches like a guy having difficulty out-thinking hitters–frequently shaking off his catcher, rarely fooling a batter with a surprising pitch in a surprising spot. But I’ve seen Joba be a great reliever. Pitching one inning at a time Chamberlain is able to get by with two pitches–both thrown hard–and spotty mechanics by just going with all out effort for 10 or 20 pitches (think of all the hard throwing relievers who threw across their bodies and fell off the mound). Its a power-against-power situation where he has to worry less about trying to set hitters up and think more about going after them, just throwing fastballs and sliders to the mitt, and Chamberlain seems like a pitcher who benefits from thinking less and throwing more. I’m happy to seen Chamberlain developed as a reliever. (And, Hughes, who still struggles with his command, looks more like a starter to me–with better mechanics, more kinds of pitches, and an easier ability to make adjustments and thing along with hitters.)

But for those who want to see Chamberlain start again, I said the idea that moving him to the pen inevitably retards his progress compared to sending him to triple-A to start is just wrong.

Many, many pitchers began their major league careers pitching in relief only to become successful starters. Think of a favorite of many Yankees fans, David Wells. Wells spent the first six years of his career bouncing between the rotation and the pen. In his first 237 major league appearances, 69 were starts. And, although he pitched mostly as a long man and swing man, during those years he also closed games occasionally recording 13 saves.

This sort of early career was once commonplace. Older NY baseball fans will remember Nolan Ryan’s early years with the Mets when Ryan was mostly a starter (74 starts out of 105 game appearances) but also a part time reliever (In 1970, when he appeared in 27 games, 19 as a starter, he recorded both a save and 5 complete games).

I don’t think it’s at all inevitable that a young pitcher who, early in his major league career bounces between the bullpen and the rotation, is somehow set back in his development. Now, most of the guys bouncing back and forth are swing men, pitching a few innings at a time in their relief appearances. That is likely not going to be the case with Chamberlain who is more likely to pitch as a one + inning set up man this year (although you never know, he’s stretched out, he could pitch more). And, I think, if he proves to be nearly in effective in that role as he was in his first pass through the majors he will become a fixture there. But even if the bullpen is just a stop along the way to a starting career, I think it a perfectly reasonable one.

 

 

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  • twasp
    Yeah. I get everything you're saying about Joba's mindset, consistency,mental capacity etc. and I don't disagree and at this moment in time, he is better as a relief pitcher.

    I just grade on a different curve. He's had very little minor league experience, thrust into the limelight of NY, has not been on the same page as his catcher, has injured his arm... pre-Aug/Sep 09 .. a 3.2 era as a starter....I've got to give him a B+ and another chance at starting. His ceiling is still a 2/3 quality starter in my mind not a good reliever.
  • JasonChervokas
    I dig it, he may turn out to be a starter eventually. But I suspect the pen may suit him better.
  • JasonChervokas
    I think way too much is made of the "Joba rules" and innings limit and how it was mentally tough on Joba and that explains his often lousy, inconsistent performance. He pitched in the bullpen where he never knew when he was going to pitch or for how long and he pitched fine. I don't think the innings limit and any uncertainty about how many pitches he would be allowed to throw had any significant impact on Joba's performance. Utter hogwash.

    I also don't blame Posada. Joba's inexeperienced even for a kid and clearly doesn't have a intuitive sense of how to set up hitters. I'd like to see him just nod his head yes and concentrate on throwing the pitch the catcher calls to the mitt. He'll do himself a favor by thinking less. Tom Seaver he ain't.

    His numbers last year were decent in April, worse than average in May, good in June, excellent in July, horrible in August/Sept. The simple fact is that except for three starts in July Joba never had a stretch of good consistent pitching as a starter last year. I'm not saying he can't be a good starter. It's possible. I'm just saying he wasn't "very good" last year, that's just not an accurate characterization of his performance. It's a wishful characterization. He was very spotty--inconsistent with his command, control, velocity, AND mental approach--but looked better and more comfortable in the pen in the playoffs (tho he was still spotty).

    Just from watching him--having never met him--he strikes me as a guy who, to date, has been overwhelmed by the adjustments--physical and mental--that one is typically called upon to make continually in the major leagues, and much more comfortable when all he has to do is bulldog his way through one inning at a time getting by on his live arm.
  • twasp
    “I don’t know if people realize how hard this is on a person,” said Smoltz, who will call Sunday’s Yankees-White Sox game on TBS. “It’s a very tough thing to do. People just assume too much in this game. People think if you have the stuff Joba has you can switch roles and just pick it right up. The reality is it’s totally different. No similarities, nothing, complete opposites.”

    Still say utter hogwash Jason?
  • JasonChervokas
    Waa-waa...You want to know what the real difference is between today's players and players of the 30s, 40s, 50s, even 60s, and 70s? Yesterday's guys didn't whine so much, didn't need to know their roles or feel loved or whatever. For 70 years pitchers have broken into the majors in the pen and bounced back and forth between relieving and starting in their early years. David Wells did it, Nolan Ryan did it, hell, Roy Halladay did it. Now, admittedly those guys were middle relievers mostly (Wells pitched late releif some) when they were bouncing back and forth. But that has always be a way to break in to the bigs. Just deal with it and get people out if you want to be a big league pitcher, and don't tell me how hard it is, no one cares. Of course its hard, that's why you get paid a major league salary. Get outs. Prove you belong. That's life in the big city.

    I thought it was worth giving Joba a chance to start but based on a year and a half of Joba as a major league starter I have to say he looks more like a reliever to me. Whatever the path to get there he seems to be in the role in which he belongs and would have wound up anyway.
  • twasp
    Yeah, I agree...Smoltz is still trying to rationalize why he didn't accept Boston's offer to go to the minors and come back as a relief pitcher in 2009 when he got bombed as a starter for them. Now he's out of baseball and crying how hard it would have been, Boo-hoo. Millionairre a-holes who dont know when to hang thenm up.

    Mean while Damon is kicking butt along with A-Jax. Cashmans follies.
  • tomwatson
    Yep - David Cone first pitched in the majors as a reliever. So did Ron
    Guidry. Andy Pettitte bounced back and forth as a swing man his first
    year. And someday, fans will remember when Phil Hughes - sans whining
    - did the same thing.
  • twasp
    Jason -

    You're a tough taskmaster. Please take out the 2 months of joba rules confusion aug/sep 09. How does his starting numbers look then?

    He was obviously not on the same page with Posada and rattled by the way he was being managed with the joba rules. But that doesn't rule him out from ever being a successful starter. In fact it supports my contention that there were mitigating factors that caused the 2 month decline and he could regain his form. His playoff rebound was significant -

    1. his fastball was back at 96
    2. his strikeout ratio per 9 was back to over 11
    3. his opponents and teammates commented on his stuff returning

    Posada has had these problems with pitchers before (Johnson,Burnett,Clemens) - he is very stubborn - and wants to run the show. But if the pitcher doesn't have conviction in the pitch, he shouldn't throw it and he should shake him off. Torre said in his book that Posada's problem is he wasn't trained as a catcher, so he doesn't have a catcher's mindset. Maybe Cashman and Girardi are waiting until Posada stops catching and then they'll move Joba back to starting?

    Joba's mechanics changed after his injury in Aug 08, which caused a diminished velocity. That can be fixed, probably not back to his 98+ fastball, but 94-96.

  • twasp
    Lets grade the Joba timeline (era)

    minors (2.4) A
    2007 relief (0.38) A+
    2008 relief (2.3)starting(2.8) A
    2009 April - july starting (3.6) B+
    2009 Aug-Sep starting (7.5) D-
    2009 Post season relief (3.0) A

    Besides the 2 months of Joba rules in 2009 Joba has been very good. I wouldn't give up on him, He's been good a lot more time than he's been bad. Both Phillies and Yankee teammates said his stuff was "electric" in the WS.
  • JasonChervokas
    I wouldn't call Chamberlain's post season in 2009 an A at all...he had an awful outing against the Angels. Looked pretty good in the WS but gave up that HR to the third baseman what's his name. Nor do I think his first half in 2009 was a B+--actually had a higher BA against in the first half than in the second half. What he had was a good April and a good July. If I gave Joba any grade today it would be incomplete. But I do think he's consistently stepped backwards in the majors and that he's looked uncomfortable as a starter.

    I'd describe Joba's ML career to date not as "very good" but as "spotty"--shown signs of brilliance and ability to dominate but has been wildly inconsistent both in terms of his control and command (inconsistant with all of his pitches) and in terms of his velocity, which I put down to a continuing struggle with mechanics. He's also appeared mentally overmatched at times as a starter (I hate to see him shaking off Posada), unsure of what to throw and unwilling to follow the catcher.

    There's no comparison between his stats as a starter vs. reliever for his career

    Starter--ERA 4.18, BA against of .266, WHIP 1.48
    Reliever-- ERA 1.50, BA against .182, WHIP 0.98

    Admittedly it's a small sample but I'm beginning to believe that it's quite possible that Joba's better suited to relief pitching than he is to starting.
  • tomwatson
    What is healthy is that now Yankee fans can slide out of the strange Joba obsession of the last few years. He's just not that good - about a B-plus prospect who has been treated as A-plus. Hughes is a better pitcher with a bigger upside, from where I'm standing. Joba, I predict, will soon be trade bait....
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