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	<title>Comments on: Nick Johnson, the Injury Bug, and the OBP Fallacy</title>
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	<link>http://www.atrainbaseball.com/2010/03/nick-johnson-the-injury-bug-and-the-obp-fallacy/</link>
	<description>New York baseball from 1900 to tomorrow&#039;s game</description>
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		<title>By: JasonChervokas</title>
		<link>http://www.atrainbaseball.com/2010/03/nick-johnson-the-injury-bug-and-the-obp-fallacy/comment-page-1/#comment-94</link>
		<dc:creator>JasonChervokas</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 15 Mar 2010 00:08:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.atrainbaseball.com/?p=35#comment-94</guid>
		<description>I don&#039;t think Johnson&#039;s a bad hitter, and once he was a pretty good first baseman. Putting aside his injury history, I don&#039;t love him as a number two hitter because of his Steve Balboni-like speed. But he&#039;s ok. He&#039;s not the stick handler Damon is, but Damon had fallen off so steeply as an OF, and the Yanks were in such desperate need of getting younger in the OF I understand the heirarchy&#039;s reluctance to make a long term high dollar committment to Damon.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I don&#39;t think Johnson&#39;s a bad hitter, and once he was a pretty good first baseman. Putting aside his injury history, I don&#39;t love him as a number two hitter because of his Steve Balboni-like speed. But he&#39;s ok. He&#39;s not the stick handler Damon is, but Damon had fallen off so steeply as an OF, and the Yanks were in such desperate need of getting younger in the OF I understand the heirarchy&#39;s reluctance to make a long term high dollar committment to Damon.</p>
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		<title>By: big papi</title>
		<link>http://www.atrainbaseball.com/2010/03/nick-johnson-the-injury-bug-and-the-obp-fallacy/comment-page-1/#comment-90</link>
		<dc:creator>big papi</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 14 Mar 2010 12:17:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.atrainbaseball.com/?p=35#comment-90</guid>
		<description>Jason/Tom - I agree Johnson is not Damon and Matsui because he hasn&#039;t proven himself on the big stage. And comparing his higher obp pales to the clutch, impact players they are.&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;But that doesn&#039;t mean we throw it out completely. The comparison to Puljos and Longoria similar obps but nowhere near the hitter is a good one if some stat head thinks NJ is as good a &quot;hitter&quot;. But to those who think his offensive contribution in the 2 spot is as conducive to scoring runs as almost any other top of the line-up hitters they may be right.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Jason/Tom &#8211; I agree Johnson is not Damon and Matsui because he hasn&#39;t proven himself on the big stage. And comparing his higher obp pales to the clutch, impact players they are.</p>
<p>But that doesn&#39;t mean we throw it out completely. The comparison to Puljos and Longoria similar obps but nowhere near the hitter is a good one if some stat head thinks NJ is as good a &#8220;hitter&#8221;. But to those who think his offensive contribution in the 2 spot is as conducive to scoring runs as almost any other top of the line-up hitters they may be right.</p>
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		<title>By: JasonChervokas</title>
		<link>http://www.atrainbaseball.com/2010/03/nick-johnson-the-injury-bug-and-the-obp-fallacy/comment-page-1/#comment-89</link>
		<dc:creator>JasonChervokas</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 13 Mar 2010 03:46:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.atrainbaseball.com/?p=35#comment-89</guid>
		<description>Garret Anderson in his prime quite possibly was more valuable than either of the other two. I&#039;d have to compare his numbers but he was a heck of a ball player.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Garret Anderson in his prime quite possibly was more valuable than either of the other two. I&#39;d have to compare his numbers but he was a heck of a ball player.</p>
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		<title>By: tomwatson</title>
		<link>http://www.atrainbaseball.com/2010/03/nick-johnson-the-injury-bug-and-the-obp-fallacy/comment-page-1/#comment-88</link>
		<dc:creator>tomwatson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 13 Mar 2010 00:17:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.atrainbaseball.com/?p=35#comment-88</guid>
		<description>Well what can I say, if you&#039;d rather have Nick Johnson over Johnny Damon &quot;anyday&quot; than you&#039;re in faith-based territory and you gotta respect another fella&#039;s religion.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Well what can I say, if you&#39;d rather have Nick Johnson over Johnny Damon &#8220;anyday&#8221; than you&#39;re in faith-based territory and you gotta respect another fella&#39;s religion.</p>
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		<title>By: Cory</title>
		<link>http://www.atrainbaseball.com/2010/03/nick-johnson-the-injury-bug-and-the-obp-fallacy/comment-page-1/#comment-87</link>
		<dc:creator>Cory</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 12 Mar 2010 23:49:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.atrainbaseball.com/?p=35#comment-87</guid>
		<description>Again, read up on wOBA and EqA which most accurately assess a players overall value. They are much more valuable than OPS, OPS is not as good a stat because it can overvalue either the SLG or OBP of a player and does not take into account the run values of say a double over a single. Saying anything about Johnson&#039;s defense is pointless b/c he&#039;ll mainly be a DH, the fact that he can play a little 1B every now and again is just icing on the cake. There&#039;s no denying Johnson is slow, but that really doesn&#039;t become a huge factor when you have two combined players batting behind you who can belt 80 HR and are XBH machines. I would take Nick Johnson anyday over Damon, and that&#039;s not even debatable to me. I can at least see a valid argument with Matsui. The only way Johnson relates to Matsui is the fact that they are both DH. If you want to compare anyone to Matsui, compare Granderson who is a left handed bat who could likely hit in the 5 hole (against righties) and who&#039;s salarly is more comparable to Matsui&#039;s than Johnsons is. You people are seriously misjudging the value of Nick Johnson.  It&#039;s also pointless to nitpick one event where Matsui drove in 6 runs and judge his value on that, that is completely silly. Any given player can have a huge game at any given time, Garret Anderson hit 10 RBI against the Yankees a few years ago, maybe he&#039;s more valuable than both players.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Again, read up on wOBA and EqA which most accurately assess a players overall value. They are much more valuable than OPS, OPS is not as good a stat because it can overvalue either the SLG or OBP of a player and does not take into account the run values of say a double over a single. Saying anything about Johnson&#39;s defense is pointless b/c he&#39;ll mainly be a DH, the fact that he can play a little 1B every now and again is just icing on the cake. There&#39;s no denying Johnson is slow, but that really doesn&#39;t become a huge factor when you have two combined players batting behind you who can belt 80 HR and are XBH machines. I would take Nick Johnson anyday over Damon, and that&#39;s not even debatable to me. I can at least see a valid argument with Matsui. The only way Johnson relates to Matsui is the fact that they are both DH. If you want to compare anyone to Matsui, compare Granderson who is a left handed bat who could likely hit in the 5 hole (against righties) and who&#39;s salarly is more comparable to Matsui&#39;s than Johnsons is. You people are seriously misjudging the value of Nick Johnson.  It&#39;s also pointless to nitpick one event where Matsui drove in 6 runs and judge his value on that, that is completely silly. Any given player can have a huge game at any given time, Garret Anderson hit 10 RBI against the Yankees a few years ago, maybe he&#39;s more valuable than both players.</p>
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		<title>By: JasonChervokas</title>
		<link>http://www.atrainbaseball.com/2010/03/nick-johnson-the-injury-bug-and-the-obp-fallacy/comment-page-1/#comment-86</link>
		<dc:creator>JasonChervokas</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 12 Mar 2010 23:09:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.atrainbaseball.com/?p=35#comment-86</guid>
		<description>This is one of those unresolvable schisms, like the continual debates among audiophiles about audible differences between capacitors that measure the same. &lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;From my perpective stats are things we invent to try to measure and compare players but they only tell us what they are designed to tell us--reflecting the biases of the creators of the measurements--inevitably they don&#039;t describe or explain everything we see. I still view OBP as a marginal stat. Both Nick Swisher and Albert Pujols have OBPs +100 points higher than their BAs, but big deal. Swisher and Evan Longoria have career OBP about 10 points apart, but are they really comparable hitters?  That&#039;s what I mean about OBP being a marginal stat, it separates otherwise similar players, but comparing one players OBP to another&#039;s doesn&#039;t tell us much about the value of a hitter in the abstract.&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;OPS gets closer to something like total bases which I like as a stat to gauge how productive a hitter is. I also like %BRS as a productivity stat. But I start with my eyes and then see if the stats describe what I see, just like I start with my ears and see if the measurements describe what I hear with audio circuits. If the stats and measurements don&#039;t comport with what I see then my presumption is that we&#039;re measuring the wrong things.&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;As to Johnson v. Matsui, they are comparable in that they fill the same roster spots, they&#039;re both LH hitters, and in essence the team replaced one with the other in terms of roster and salary. With respect to their intended roles in the line up they are different obviously, though, as I&#039;ve said previously in this thread in any given game, past the first inning, any hitter can come up in any kind of situation--a get on base situation, a move runners over situation, a drive runners in situation. There&#039;s no doubt that Matsui is an excellent situational hitter. I don&#039;t imagine Nick Johnson on his best day single handedly winning a world series game the way Matsui did with his 6 RBIs in game 6.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This is one of those unresolvable schisms, like the continual debates among audiophiles about audible differences between capacitors that measure the same. </p>
<p>From my perpective stats are things we invent to try to measure and compare players but they only tell us what they are designed to tell us&#8211;reflecting the biases of the creators of the measurements&#8211;inevitably they don&#39;t describe or explain everything we see. I still view OBP as a marginal stat. Both Nick Swisher and Albert Pujols have OBPs +100 points higher than their BAs, but big deal. Swisher and Evan Longoria have career OBP about 10 points apart, but are they really comparable hitters?  That&#39;s what I mean about OBP being a marginal stat, it separates otherwise similar players, but comparing one players OBP to another&#39;s doesn&#39;t tell us much about the value of a hitter in the abstract.</p>
<p>OPS gets closer to something like total bases which I like as a stat to gauge how productive a hitter is. I also like %BRS as a productivity stat. But I start with my eyes and then see if the stats describe what I see, just like I start with my ears and see if the measurements describe what I hear with audio circuits. If the stats and measurements don&#39;t comport with what I see then my presumption is that we&#39;re measuring the wrong things.</p>
<p>As to Johnson v. Matsui, they are comparable in that they fill the same roster spots, they&#39;re both LH hitters, and in essence the team replaced one with the other in terms of roster and salary. With respect to their intended roles in the line up they are different obviously, though, as I&#39;ve said previously in this thread in any given game, past the first inning, any hitter can come up in any kind of situation&#8211;a get on base situation, a move runners over situation, a drive runners in situation. There&#39;s no doubt that Matsui is an excellent situational hitter. I don&#39;t imagine Nick Johnson on his best day single handedly winning a world series game the way Matsui did with his 6 RBIs in game 6.</p>
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		<title>By: tomwatson</title>
		<link>http://www.atrainbaseball.com/2010/03/nick-johnson-the-injury-bug-and-the-obp-fallacy/comment-page-1/#comment-85</link>
		<dc:creator>tomwatson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 12 Mar 2010 22:46:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.atrainbaseball.com/?p=35#comment-85</guid>
		<description>Nick Johnson will make you wish Jorgie Posada was out there running the bases - he&#039;s nowhere close to Damon as no. 2 hitter.&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;Look, Johnson will occasionally beat you and yes, he&#039;s a professional hitter, not a bum. But he&#039;s no Matsui or Damon. I&#039;ve been to dozens of games where Johnson played against the Mets. Sure, he&#039;s got that gaudy OBP but he&#039;s just not a force at all. And he&#039;s lost all his range at 1B (again, Posada has more - at first!), though he still has the quick glove. But you&#039;ll find that out....</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Nick Johnson will make you wish Jorgie Posada was out there running the bases &#8211; he&#39;s nowhere close to Damon as no. 2 hitter.</p>
<p>Look, Johnson will occasionally beat you and yes, he&#39;s a professional hitter, not a bum. But he&#39;s no Matsui or Damon. I&#39;ve been to dozens of games where Johnson played against the Mets. Sure, he&#39;s got that gaudy OBP but he&#39;s just not a force at all. And he&#39;s lost all his range at 1B (again, Posada has more &#8211; at first!), though he still has the quick glove. But you&#39;ll find that out&#8230;.</p>
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		<title>By: Cory</title>
		<link>http://www.atrainbaseball.com/2010/03/nick-johnson-the-injury-bug-and-the-obp-fallacy/comment-page-1/#comment-84</link>
		<dc:creator>Cory</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 12 Mar 2010 22:14:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.atrainbaseball.com/?p=35#comment-84</guid>
		<description>EqA, wOBA, and WAR, read up on it and you&#039;ll thank me in the morning. Nick Johnson is superior to Matsui in all those categories. Granted, WAR takes into acount defense, which obviously Matsui hasn&#039;t contributed to in a few years now. The other two basically state that Johnson is a more valuable hitter than Matsui is. Also, comparing Matsui to Johnson is moot, one is a 5 hole hitter, the other is a 2 hole hitter, it is completely ridiculous to compare the two. It&#039;s not going to be Nick Johnson&#039;s job to slug 25 HR, his job is to get on base and score runs, you know what leads to scoring more runs right? Getting on base. When it comes to that, Nick Johnson is one of the best and is about as good at his job as there is out there. It&#039;s Tex and A-Rods job to slug and hit HRs. I also think it&#039;s silly that slugging and driving in runs is supposed to equate to a better hitter, this isn&#039;t 1950, there are much better statistics to prove a players value then the counting statistics on the back of a baseball card, especially when considering what part of the lineup a particular batter will be hitting in.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>EqA, wOBA, and WAR, read up on it and you&#39;ll thank me in the morning. Nick Johnson is superior to Matsui in all those categories. Granted, WAR takes into acount defense, which obviously Matsui hasn&#39;t contributed to in a few years now. The other two basically state that Johnson is a more valuable hitter than Matsui is. Also, comparing Matsui to Johnson is moot, one is a 5 hole hitter, the other is a 2 hole hitter, it is completely ridiculous to compare the two. It&#39;s not going to be Nick Johnson&#39;s job to slug 25 HR, his job is to get on base and score runs, you know what leads to scoring more runs right? Getting on base. When it comes to that, Nick Johnson is one of the best and is about as good at his job as there is out there. It&#39;s Tex and A-Rods job to slug and hit HRs. I also think it&#39;s silly that slugging and driving in runs is supposed to equate to a better hitter, this isn&#39;t 1950, there are much better statistics to prove a players value then the counting statistics on the back of a baseball card, especially when considering what part of the lineup a particular batter will be hitting in.</p>
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		<title>By: JasonChervokas</title>
		<link>http://www.atrainbaseball.com/2010/03/nick-johnson-the-injury-bug-and-the-obp-fallacy/comment-page-1/#comment-83</link>
		<dc:creator>JasonChervokas</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 12 Mar 2010 21:05:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.atrainbaseball.com/?p=35#comment-83</guid>
		<description>Nice, discussion guys, I&#039;ve heard 5th grade girls engaging in far more substantial discourse.&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;Steve Vai, well, you know, a player with amazing technique who expanded the vocabulary of his instrument, but I find I never want to listen to the music he&#039;s composed...as a writer he&#039;s a sideman. As to OBP, well, everyone knows what I think, not that telling a statistic and of marginal importance to a player&#039;s offensive output. As to Nick Johnson, well everyone knows what I think about that too, I like Nick Johnson as a player, but for a single season of 2010 I&#039;d rather have Matsui.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Nice, discussion guys, I&#39;ve heard 5th grade girls engaging in far more substantial discourse.</p>
<p>Steve Vai, well, you know, a player with amazing technique who expanded the vocabulary of his instrument, but I find I never want to listen to the music he&#39;s composed&#8230;as a writer he&#39;s a sideman. As to OBP, well, everyone knows what I think, not that telling a statistic and of marginal importance to a player&#39;s offensive output. As to Nick Johnson, well everyone knows what I think about that too, I like Nick Johnson as a player, but for a single season of 2010 I&#39;d rather have Matsui.</p>
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		<title>By: Cory </title>
		<link>http://www.atrainbaseball.com/2010/03/nick-johnson-the-injury-bug-and-the-obp-fallacy/comment-page-1/#comment-82</link>
		<dc:creator>Cory </dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 12 Mar 2010 20:30:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.atrainbaseball.com/?p=35#comment-82</guid>
		<description>Not much of a comment on Steve Vai pallie- obviously you don&#039;t hold any strong and defensible positions.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Not much of a comment on Steve Vai pallie- obviously you don&#39;t hold any strong and defensible positions.</p>
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