It’s only the second spring training game but with Nick Johnson scratched from yesterday’s line up because of back pain the “here we go again” stories are already being written about the oft injured first baseman.
Now I don’t think Johnson’s playing time is a make or break factor for the 2010 Yankees because, frankly, I have low expectations for Johnson’s offensive impact. But unlike last year, and many years previous, the Yanks aren’t loaded up with veteran DH candidates. Sure they have a lot of outfielders, and I suspect you’ll wind up seeing a lot of Randy Winn in the outfield with Nick Swisher as DH in Johnson’s absence. And mark my words there will be plenty of days when Johnson is absent. In his 7 full major league seasons Johnson’s average 108 games per season, but that average masks the reality that he’s played 100 games or more fewer times than he’s played less than 100 games. A Yankee team with Brett Gardiner, Curtis Granderson and Randy Winn in the OF and Nick Swisher at DH is hardly one for the time capsule. It’s a good thing they’ve got great offensive output from the infield. (If anything can derail the Yanks this year it’s injuries, with age on the infield and pitchers like Burnett and Pettitte due for DL stints.)
I understand, and even like most of the Yanks’ off season moves (especially the theft of Javier Vazquez for Melky Cabrera). They needed to get younger and more atheletic in the OF and in Granderson they get someone eight years younger who can match Damon’s offensive output and play better OF. They needed to clear out DH time for aging infield vets, most especially Posada (who should be transitioning to full time DH). They needed to clear out salary and roster space for next year’s class of free agents like Carl Crawford and Cliff Lee so they needed a bunch of one year deals (Johnson, Pettitte) and fill in players (Winn, Thames). I get all that.
What I don’t get is signing Nick Johnson instead of Hideki Matsui. Ok, Matsui literally can’t do anything but DH at this point while Johnson can still play a decent first base as a fill it (though at 30 and already carrying a Babe-ish pot belly he’s not terribly mobile at first anymore). But playing a little first base is Johnson’s only plus. For one year Matsui is still a much more productive offensive player (162 game averages: .292 BA, 25 HR, 106 RBI, 95 R, 286 total bases for Matsui; .273 BA, 19 HR, 80 RBI, 86 R, 239 total bases for Johnson). And even with Mastui’s bad knees he still played many more games than Johnson over the last three seasons: 378 for Matsui, 266 for Johnson.
What is the reasoning offered for the Johnson signing by Brian Cashman and Johnson’s adherents? That Johnson can fill Damon’s slot in the two-hole in the batting order because of his on-base percentage. In recent years OBP (and OPS) are statistics that have gained a cultist currency, but I think OBP is the most overrated statistic in baseball history. Nick Johnson’s career OBP is 30 points higher than Hideki Matsui’s. Is anyone willing to argue that Johnson is a better hitter than Matsui, or that he’s a more productive player? Of course not. Scoring runs and driving in runs–these are the crucial offensive skill for an offensive baseball player, and while any players’ totals in these areas are affected by the performance of the players around him, good run producers will out. Look at how many RBIs a guy has year after year. Look at a guy’s batting average with runners in scoring position. Look at his runs scored totals year after year. That will tell you if you have a run producer on your hands. OPS tells us next to nothing about a player’s ability to produce runs.
I’m not saying Johnson is a poor run producer. He’s a pretty good one, in fact, and a comparison with Robinson Cano is instructive. Cano and Johnson couldn’t have hitting styles that are more different–Cano is a classic free swinger, Johnson a classic pitch-taker. The common perception is that Cano, with his .320 BA, 48 double, 24 HR last year is a better run producer than Nick Johnson. But in fact the Yanks plan to bat Cano in the five-spot this year, one of the most important run producing slots in the line up. But if you compare their 162-game average you’ll see that Cano and Johnson are very similar run producers
Cano .306, 19 HR, 87 RBI, 90 R, 302 total bases, .339 OBP
Johnson .273, 19 HR, 80 RBI, 86 R, 239 total bases, .402 OBP
Similar, but not the same. With his similar HR power but 30 point higher BA Cano is in fact a better run producer than Johnson with his 70 point higher OBP. But the differences aren’t enormous. Cano and Johnson are similarly productive, but they come by their productivity differently; that’s the only thing their OBP number tell us.
Now selectivity at the plate–for which OBP is often a proxy–is certainly a virtue that Cano does not possess. And it’s a skill that, were he to improve on it, would undoubtedly make Cano a better run producer–not only getting him on base more often and helping him score more runs but also gettting him better pitches to hit and allowing him to drive in more runs. But OBP in an of itself is a next to meaningless stat. You win by touching home, not by touching first.
