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More Core Four Madness!

NEW YORK - SEPTEMBER 21: (L-R) Jorge Posada #...
Image by Getty Images via Daylife

Maybe spring training’s too long. Or just maybe, the explosion of statistical analysis that has inebriated formerly sane baseball fans – and seemingly, kept them from actually watching ballgames – has overtaken the national pastime, creating a virtual world of numbers that actually obscures what’s happening on green grass and  brown clay. But the “Core Four” craze has already jumped its shark.

This time it’s Nate Silver, a popular liberal blogger who has done some terrific numbers crunching in analyzing poll data, starting with the 2008 presidential race. Silver runs fivethirtyeight.com, which has become the go-to site for progressive bloggers studying election probability – and he did some projecting for the 2010 Baseball Prospectus. And at the Village Voice, sports scribe Allan Barra decided to punch up Silver’s projections on the performance of the Yankees “core four” of homegrown stars, namely Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Andy Pettitte and Jorge Posada. If you’re an impressionable Yankees fan easily given to panic – well, read no further. Quoth Barra:

Jeter from a 2009 batting average of .334 to .286 this year, a drop in home runs from 18 to 11, and in stolen bases from 30 to 10. Posada from a .285 BA to .263, home runs from 22 to 12. Pettitte from 14-8 and an ERA of 4.06 to 10-11 and 4.70. Scariest of all, Rivera from 44 saves to 22, and and ERA the moves from 1.76 to 3.53.

If Silver is right, the 2010 Yankees are sunk. Worse yet, Steinbrenner and Cashman seem to have no plans for how to replace the Core Four. Last year we suggested that the Yankees were going to be in trouble if Jeter played at the level of a typical 35-year old shortstop. He made us look foolish by playing way above it. But what happens if age catches up to him this season? Where will the Yankees move him to, and who is ready to step in at shortstop? The problem hasn’t gone away, it’s just gotten a year older.

Just as serious is the future of the Yankees at catcher without Jorge Posada. Francisco Cervelli, at age 24, looks competent but doesn’t seem as if he will ever be the hitter Posada was (Silver projects him to bat .250 with three home runs this year). Pettitte dodged a lot of bullets last season, giving up 233 hits in just 204 innings, but he could easily go from a potential problem to a serious liability if he breaks down.

We suspect that if Silver is wrong about one of the four, it’s Rivera, who stays in splendid shape and has just one kind of pitch to throw and one job to do. But as we go to press, the Yankees have yet to determine who is going to be the set-up guy, and that guy will eventually inherit Mariano’s spot. If Jeter, Posada, and Pettitte decline as sharply as players their age have in the past, Mo’s role will be less important — he’ll have fewer games to save.

Now, this makes for some fun spring kibitzing at the local pub, no doubt. And yeah, the Yanks’ core stars are getting older – A-Rod’s 34, I’ll note. But I also suspect even the best regression analysis in the world won’t necessarily predict what’s gonna happen on the field. Managers don’t bring PECOTA predictions to homeplate before each game – they bring lineup cards. And this Yankee core group – old or not – simply won’t regress that much, in my view (and this from a Mets fan, mind you).

Rob Neyer at ESPN brings a little sanity to this, er, prediction (with agreement from River Ave Blues): “I’ll just say that I don’t believe that Jeter is going to steal 10 bases this season, and that I don’t believe Mariano Rivera will save only 22 games. I will say, too, that if your system says those things, it’s probably worth checking under the hood just in case one of the belts is running a little loose.”

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By Tom Watson
March 20, 2010

View Comments

  • JasonChervokas
    Yeah, I was gonna post something about those numbers. It's hard to know with aging players...there's definitely a wild card "hit the wall" factor which I'd expect mostly to see come into play with Rivera--because he's the oldest and a year removed from surgery--and Posada--because he's the second oldest and a catcher. But it could happen to any of 'em or none of 'em. Silver's numbers suggest they'll ALL hit the wall this year, and that just sounds like the wishful thinking of a Red Sox or Rays fan.


    The Yanks ought to be pretty good this year if only because w/ Vazquez their starting pitching is much improved (I also thing Hughes is going to wind up as a decent starter and the bullpen with Joba, a rejuvenated Marte, a maturing Robertson, will also be better). But the offense is not as good (tho presumably they'll have A-rod for the whole year) and the Sox are much improved. I expect both the Sox and Yanks to be knocking on the door of 100 wins and duking it out this season.
  • twasp
    Yes, you gotta believe Vazquez will pitch better than the Wang/Joba starts last year. And the bullpen looks solid (regardless Joba or Hughes). Key injuries may decide the AL East.

    I'm more concerned with the playoffs' starting pitching matchups - CC, AJ, Andy lose match-ups againt beckett.lester.lackey and hernandez,lee,bedard. AJ's a weak link and how many times can Andy gut one out?
  • twasp
    Nate Silver's numbers are right on target ....... if he was speaking about the 2012 season.

    I do expect some decline in all 4 of the players this season though, and when you consider the loss of Damon and Matsui, the lack of progress in Joba/Hughes development as 5th starter, the question of Gardner as a solid starting OFer, Grandy's LHP flaw, AJ's frustrating inconsistency...it may be a long season......hopefully they can keep pace with the vastly improved (defense/pitching) Sox.
  • tomwatson
    The Sox are an interesting case this year - we should do a post. Fantastic pitching quality and depth and as you say, much improved defense, especially range/speed. But it might be the lightest hitting Boston squad - at least on paper - in quite some time.

    And the Yanks do have more holes than they did last year, no question - a few more soft/weak spots but still - on paper - another 92-95 win team.
  • twasp
    Tom - don't worry about the Sox's offense, you, Jason and I could hit playing in that softball field. Beltre,Cameron,Papi,Pedroia can still dent the Green Monster ... and Youk and Vmart are legit hitters. They wont have to score as much as the Manny Sox with their superb pitching and defense.

    I see a mid-90 wins dogfight ... a Yankee wild card ..... and a quick exit to the King and Lee .....as AJ implodes....Andy goes to the well once to often....and Javy makes Ozzie Guillen look like a genius.
  • JasonChervokas
    Boy, I thought I could be negative about the Yanks!....I think the Sox are better offensively this year than last year with a full year of Martinez and the addition of Beltre..they ain't the power hitting team of the past, and I'm a Beltre skeptic, but they're better than last year in every way. I do suspect they will win the division but it's a toss up. In the playoffs? Who knows, we'll see who is playing well when we get there. I'm not convinced Seattle will even be there.
  • twasp
    We've got to be cautious - high expectations lead to disappointment. Every world champion since 2000 has been knocked out the following season. In the curent game of free agency, endorsements, media, distractions ..... only the uber-hungry, talented and lucky can repeat,

    Jason how would you rank the top 2 starters : cc,aj, king, lee, lester,beckett, verlander,jackson?
  • JasonChervokas
    Hmm, that's an interersting question. And, btw, I'm not so sure that AJ will be the #2 starter for the Yanks by the time they get to the playoffs.

    I'm not sure what to make of King Felix and Cliff Lee...King obviously has electric stuff and is young and last year could have been his big break out which he'll build on. Lee also is terrific and was so great in clutch games last year, but he's had a bit of an up and down career. That's a twosome that has the potential to dominate but I'm taking a bit of a wait and see approach to them.

    Jackson's gone in Detroit, Verlander can dominate games but he's still a 3.50 era pitcher over a season so I'm never sure what to make of him either.

    Beckett I love and he's pitching for a contract, but he's also very up and down, I mean, he's been a great pitcher on great teams but he's won 20 games only once and has a career ERA of almost 3.80. Lester's good, league hasn't figured him out.

    I dunno how I'd rank 'em. I think the aces are pretty comparable w/ King Felix having the potential to be significantly better than the other veteran aces. Lee's the best of the number two pitchers, I dunno who is the number 2 pitcher in Detroit, Burnett's the worst of the number twos--but like I said, I suspect Vazquez is going to be the Yanks number 2 by the end of the season, still probably the least good of the number 2 starters, but it's close. I'd say across the board it's pretty close on the top twos (with the caveat that I don't think Burnett's really the number 2), with Seattle's pair having the potential to be the best of the group, but close enough that I don't know that there's a huge advantage for any team head to head. Maybe the Yanks are slightly behind.
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