Cano Hitting 5th, Doomed to Failure?

The spring training Yankees pool coverage (by that I mean all the reporters sit around the pool and write the same story every day) all concerns Robinson Cano hitting 5th this year.

Robinson Cano hitting fifth means Alex Rodriguez is going to lead the league in walks. I can’t imagine any team pitching to Arod in a big RBI spot with the guy hitting behind him having career numbers like Cano’s. Last year Cano hit .207 with RISP, career he’s a .256 hitter in such situations. This is a guy with a career BA of .331 with the bases empty.

Yankees fans have long wanted to see Cano become the middle-of-the-order run producer his BA and power suggest he could be, but at 27 can Cano become a different hitter–more disciplined, able to foul off or take close pitches in a big spot, someone with the mental toughness to bear down in big spots and deliver some kind of run producing contact wherever pitchers are going to try to pitch him? Frankly I doubt it. Although players sometimes become different kinds of hitters when the move from the minors to the majors (look at the power Mattingly added), how often do they become different kinds of hitters at 27 after several years of major league success?

Joseph Pawlikowski at River Ave Blues notes that Cano actually hit 5th more often than any Yankee other Hideki Matsui last year, compiling decent numbers:

Cano actually saw the second most time in the fifth spot last year, 223 plate appearances. In those he hit .299/.318/.477, a downgrade from his season line of .320/.352/.520. His time in the fifth spot, of course, represents just a small sample, about 34 percent of his season. It’s tough to draw conclusions about his ability to hit in that spot from just a third of his plate appearances. We also won’t learn much by going into Cano’s history hitting fifth. Not only did he hit in front of and behind different hitters, but he also hit there just 61 times in his career before 2009.

Maybe we can’t learn much from this 5th position stats, but we do know from watching Cano that in big RBI spots he frequently has what look like lazy undisciplined at bats. Always a free swinger he seems less selective than usual in these spots often chasing pitches off the plate away from him–both fastballs up and breaking balls down–taking that long slow walk of shame back to the dugout after another poor at bat.

Don’t get me wrong, I like Cano. He’s a good hitter and an underrated fielder. But he is one of the softest .320 hitters you’ll ever see and it has everything to do with his mental toughness and discipline in big spots. Humans can change, of course, even obviously stubborn, 27-year-old,  super-talented baseball players. But having watched these lousy situational at-bats from Cano for half a decade I’ll remain skeptical until it happens. The scenario I expect to see is a couple of weeks of Cano in the 5 slot, at-bat after a walk to A-rod, striking out frequently, popping balls up, rolling over weak ground balls, followed by managerial moves to drop Cano in the order and put Posada in the 5 hole.

What do you expect?
 

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