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Around the Horn with the Yankees

The Yanks’ Minor League Challenge. John Sickels of MinorLeagueBaseball.com has posted an informative interview with Mark Newman, Yanks senior VP of baseball operations (thanks to Steve Lombardi of Was Watching for the link). The piece offers a good guide to Yankees sleeper prospects–take that for what its worth, few Yankees prospects wind up with careers in Yankees uniforms, and few fringe Yankees prospect turn out to have surprisingly good major league careers (Mo Rivera and Andy Pettitte 15 years ago may be he last two in that category), but the piece offers an interesting look at the challenges that the Yankees face in stocking the minor leagues. No one is crying for the Yanks, but, as Newman points out, because the major league team wins a lot, the organization rarely has high draft choices and needs to pursue non-draft strategies for populating the farm.

…our mandate to win yearly in the majors gives us two main challenges: our draft slot and the fact that we often trade prospects. Where we pick in the draft is always an issue, at least if we’re doing our job by winning at the major league level. We almost always have lower picks in the draft, and that makes it harder to get players with high upsides in the draft process, especially for the hitters…Because of those two factors, especially the draft slot issue, we will take risks on some players to get a high-ceiling guy in the system…..There has to be a solid reason or really outstanding tools to give a Latin player a large bonus, but if we think the risk is worth it, we will take it. It would be fairly rare for a guy with a Montero or Gary Sanchez or Arodys Vizcaino-like upside to fall to us in the draft, so we look hard to find guys with that kind of talent internationally. This is especially true for the position players, since few guys with genuine impact bats will get to us at the bottom of the first round. We have to take the risk to get guys like that somewhere, so we’ll look in Latin America. We can find tools there that are hard for us to acquire in the draft.

Interesting stuff.

Granderson, Another Import Likely to Struggle Early. I don’t put much stock in spring training stats–although if you watch a player you can see how his swing or pitching motion looks, the stats based on a small number of at-bats or innings pitched in exhibition games against non-major league talent tellyou very little. But Curtis Granderson’s woeful spring (.160 BA–4 hits in 25 ABs) suggests that we may be watching another player go through a half-season of under-acheiving NY adjustment. It happens to many, if not most players who come to New York (at least from anywhere other than Boston).  I won’t be surprised if Granderson struggles mightily in the first half.

The Good, the Band & Joba. I’ve got a soft spot in my heart for contrarians, but Brian Burkhart’s piece yesterdaysaying Joba should be handed the 5th starter’s gig is on the edge of nutty. Burkhart’s point that Joba’s no longer on an innings watch but Hughes is, is a fair one. But Steve Lombardi at Was Watching concisely presents the other side noting that in his brief youthful career Joba has seen is preformance decline the more innings he pitches and the more batters he faces. 

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  • twasp
    I loved the way everyone was going around saying what a genius CashMan was for getting Grandy. As if Grandy was the next coming of the Mick. I think people will be very unpleasantly surprised at how flawed a player Grandy is. He's a clear upgrade over Melky, but you've got to ask the question - why did Detroit give up so quickly on him? His numbers(except hrs) have been in freefall the last 2 seasons. The rumour was he was distracted in Detroit. Luckily NY has no distractions????
  • JasonChervokas
    What little I've seen from Granderson in Detroit I liked, but I expect him to have the traditional hard time adjusting to NY...we'll see if last year's BA was an anomoly or the beginning of a decline. He needs to hit in the vicinity of his career average--.265, .270; with 20+ HRs, steal some bases, and play the good CF I've seen him play, not the bad CF he apparently played down the stretch last year.
  • twasp
    Yankee fans are thinking ..."if he can hit 30 at Comerica ...that's 40 in the Bronx Wind Tunnel. Cashman got us an all-star for nothing ..what an off-season ...CashMans a genius"

    Your line is what I would predict ,270 25 hrs a little above avg defense. Gardner ,265 4 hrs and 35sbs. Hmmmm........a significant upgrade over Damon and Melky ? Defensively yes, high leverage hitting ..... a significant downgrade I'm afraid.

    A brilliant off-season for CashMan? .,,, not so much. Yes, Javy will upgrade the starting pitching depth but has he grown some kahunas? or will he serve up some more softballs to Damon in the ALDS?

    And the Damon negotiations got to personal with Boras and CashMan botched it. Nick Johnson is a nice player,but lets get serious...if he doesn't trip over the on-deck circle and tear cartilage in his ears, he still won't be half the clutch impact hitter that Matsui is (even on those supposedly 90 yr old knees).

    Smiley's right again... 95 wins and pray for the wild card.

  • JasonChervokas
    I don't really agree with this. First, I'm not at all sure Gardner can hit .265. Second, though I'm not counting on more than 25-27 HR from Granderson, I also wouldn't be surprised if he hits 35. Definitely a possiblity. New Yankee is a band box, particularly for a LH pull hitter. The real question is--is Granderson a .250 hitter like he was last year, or the .280-.300 hitter he was in the two prior seasons?

    Melky for Javier Vasquez was an absolute steal. He's an excellent pitcher who was a legit Cy Young candidate last year and the Yankees acquired him in a salary dump for a spare part outfielder! Yankee starting pitching 1-4 is better than anyone else's if only because the Sox 4th starter (whoever that turns out to be) has more question marks surrounding him than Vazquez. Vazquez will pitch well, pitch a lot of innings, but give up some HRs. I'm not really worried about Javier.

    Damon, I just think Cashman didn't want him at any price. And Nick Johnson, well, you know what I think about him.
  • twasp
    Jason - thanks for the quick response -----I don't disagree with anything you've just said. Is it my conclusion where we differ? Are we on the same page at 95 wins and likely wild card?

    Javy was a steal and will help the Yankees through the season. But I evaluate the players on a different curve. The Yankees usually, make the playoffs so besides looking at what the player can do to get me there , I also look at how do I think he will perform on the big stage in Oct/Nov. Damon in Boston and NY, Matsui ....excellent money players. Grandy (man was he bad in the WS), Javy (just for fun look up his stats in post season with CWS and NY) NJ (first time in NY PS ...bad) haven't shown me anything when the lights are on bright. Sample sizes too small .... ok ...but I would have stuck with the girls I brought to the dance. And CashMan's not getting any kudos from me, until the prom queen is crowned.
  • JasonChervokas
    Yeah, Vazquez's post season numbers are lousy, and I agree, big game and post season performance matters more. It's like golf, we don't remember how many car company invitiationals a guy wins, we remember how many majors he wins. But we'll see, there have been guys--like Sabathia and A-rod--who had lousy post seasons in the past and then clutch ones. I do think the Yanks will need Vazquez to pitch well in the post season if they want to advance.


    Are the Yankees 8 wins worse than last year because of the loss of Damon and Matsui? Or are they better than last year because of the addition of Vazquez? They won 103 games last year. I think they'll win at least 95 games this year, probably more. Red Sox won 95 and they got a lot better with Lester, Beltre, they also should be knocking on the door of 100 wins. Which one wins the division and which one wins the wild cards is a pick-'em for me. And I'm not sure what to make of the Rays who are very talented.
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